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New EWG Analyses: Subsidies on Autopilot: EWG's Projected Direct Payment Subsidies How EWG Projected Direct Payment Subsidies Projected Beneficiaries and Businesses Farm Businesses That Would Receive $1 million+ Over 5 Years Additional Analyses Projected Beneficiaries and Businesses by State Other Information Data Used in This Website (USDA backgrounders) 
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Direct Payment Projections, 2008-2012In this analysis, EWG averaged direct payments attributed to farm businesses and beneficiaries in USDA's Section 1614 database for the three program years, 2003 through 2005. This yearly average was then multipied by five to determine the total projected direct payments, by farm business and beneficiary, for the 2008-2012 period. We present the projections for the nation, by state and congressional district, and by crop. The analysis projects direct payments as if "all other conditions are equal." Specifically, EWG cannot account in these projections for any future changes that may occur in farm organization or ownership that could alter direct payment amounts to specific farm businesses or beneficiaries. We are also unable to determine which farm businesses or beneficiaries would received increased "Pelosi payments" under House provisions that would uniquely provide a subsidy bonus to large crop farms by lifting current limits on direct payments to individuals from $40,000 per year to $60,000 per year (i.e., an increase from $80,000 to $120,000 for a married couple). However, it is likely that most recipients of the Pelosi payment bonus would be beneficiaries currently at, or near, the $40,000 per person limit for direct payments, generally speaking the largest subsidized crop operations in the country. Likewise, EWG is unable to determine the potential impact of the Senate bill's "average crop revenue" provision on direct payments to any particular farm business or beneficiary, because we have no way of predicting which of them may participate in the ACR program. Finally, these projections cannot account for changes that may arise through the "reforms" in the House and Senate bill that would modify the adjusted gross income test for farm subsidy payments. However, given that those modifications scored only modest budget savings according to the Congressional Budget Office ($45 million per year for the House provisions over 5 years) and would affect a tiny fraction of taxpayers receiving farm subsidies (according to USDA), we believe the projections serve as the best available baseline for determining who is likely to benefit, and to what extent, by extension of the direct payment program in both the House and Senate bills. |
